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We integrated a mechanistic wildfire simulation system with an agent-based landscape change model to investigate the feedbacks among climate change, population growth, development, landowner decision-making, vegetative succession, and wildfire. Our goal was to develop an adaptable simulation platform for anticipating risk-mitigation tradeoffs in a fire-prone wildland–urban interface (WUI) facing conditions outside the bounds of experience. We describe how five social and ecological system (SES) submodels interact over time and space to generate highly variable alternative futures even within the same scenario as stochastic elements in simulated wildfire, succession, and landowner decisions create large sets of unique, path-dependent futures for analysis. We applied the modeling system to an 815 km2 study area in western Oregon at a sub-taxlot parcel grain and annual timestep, generating hundreds of alternative futures for 2007–2056 (50 years) to explore how WUI communities facing compound risks from increasing wildfire and expanding periurban development can situate and assess alternative risk management approaches in their localized SES context. The ability to link trends and uncertainties across many futures to processes and events that unfold in individual futures is central to the modeling system. By contrasting selected alternative futures, we illustrate how assessing simulated feedbacks between wildfire and other SES processes can identify tradeoffs and leverage points in fire-prone WUI landscapes. Assessments include a detailed “post-mortem” of a rare, extreme wildfire event, and uncovered, unexpected stabilizing feedbacks from treatment costs that reduced the effectiveness of agent responses to signs of increasing risk. 

Private landowners in the southern Willamette Valley of Oregon, USA were surveyed. The survey queried probabilities of implementing specific fuels reduction projects in extensive areas of specific forest types on their property. The projects were described in relation to the beginning and target forest types, the actions required, costs, and long-term maintenance. Forest types were first rated for scenic beauty and informed levels of wildfire risk reduction, scarce habitat production, and associated property rights risks. Propensities to perform each fuels reduction project were then obtained. These were adversely affected by disbelief in heightened wildfire risks or climate change, higher project costs, feelings of hopeless vulnerability to wildfire, and low aesthetic affections for target forests. Propensities were enhanced by aesthetic affection for target forests, belief in the efficaciousness of fuels reduction, previous experience with wildfire evacuation, and higher incomes. All landowners favored thinning of young conifer forests, but some were averse to thinning of mature conifer forests. Anthropocentric landowners, mainly farmers, foresters, and some small holders, tended to favor conventional thinnings toward commercially valuable conifer forests and avoided long-term habitat maintenance. Nature-centric landowners, mainly some rural residents and wealthy estate owners, leaned more toward long term habitat goals and oak forests.